Mixed fortunes await trio as final countdown starts

MARCH 27 — We are now eight months into the English Premier League (EPL) season — and heading to the final lap with just seven games to play. It’s been awhile since we had all three teams at the top with an equal number of games played to give an accurate assessment of where each team stands.

Following Chelsea’s easy 5-0 win over Portsmouth on Wednesday night, the table now has Manchester United (MU) with 69 points, one ahead of Chelsea, and Arsenal following closely on 67.

Ask any football fan and pundit out there and you will hear how much we are all enjoying the tight race at the top. Well, maybe Liverpool fans might think otherwise, but for most neutrals, this is a refreshing change to seasons past.

Arsenal is said to have the relatively easier run-in as they are not going head-to-head against any of their rivals. But with the remaining schedule being as follows – Birmingham City (away), Wolverhampton Wanderers (home), Tottenham Hotspur (a), Wigan Athletic (a), Manchester City (h), Blackburn Rovers (a), Fulham (h) — it’s not exactly a walk in the park.

Two London derbies, one of which is away to neighbours and Champions League-chasing Spurs, plus the visit of Man City, are likely to be the toughest ties on paper. But with two relegation-threatened teams, Wolves and Wigan, in the mix, there is bound to be some do-or-die efforts to derail the Gunners’ title ambitions.

Tonight, after a run of five successive league victories, Arsenal take on a Birmingham side which has lost two on the trot. But that’s where the good news ends for the Londoners. The Brums record at home has been impeccable for a side languishing in mid-table, being unbeaten since September 2009.

The Arsenal will be without Thomas Vermaelen, the only ever-present in the Arsenal team throughout the league season, due to suspension following his red card last week.

Incidentally, it was Arsenal’s first red card of the season. The decision seemed harsh, his actions being more clumsy than malicious, but he was the last man and so had to go. I will not question the ref on that.

With William Gallas and Swiss international Johan Djourou injured, and the latter’s international teammate Philippe Senderos on loan at Everton, that leaves two ‘grand-dads’ (by Arsenal standards) to partner up in defence for the first time since the disastrous visit to Stoke City in the FA Cup 4th round tie on January 24. The ‘grand-dads’, Mikael Silvestre and Sol Campbell, were rivals when the latter last played for the Gunners.

While Silvestre has generally failed to justify his presence, Campbell has looked more and more like a stroke of genius from manager Arsene Wenger. However, the Stoke strike force exploited the older and admittedly slower defensive pairing quite easily.

That may be the only reason, I believe, Wenger might consider using Alexander Song to partner Silvestre. Not that the ex-MU player is a better player, but it would allow for Campbell to rest in preparation for the gruelling test expected from Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals next Wednesday.

Wenger insists his players will not be distracted by that game while they bid to keep their Premier League title bid alive by winning at Birmingham. But honestly, I doubt their mind will be on Barca when most players will have some unpleasant memories coming on to the pitch at St Andrews.

It will be their first time there since former Brums defender Martin Taylor almost ended Arsenal striker Eduardo’s career in February 2008. The Croatia international was sidelined for the best part of a year after being left with a broken leg and dislocated ankle following an X-rated tackle.

Ironically, the sacrifice of Aaron Ramsey in suffering a similar career-threatening injury last month, may have actually prepared the players who were in both matches with the strength to know that they can overcome such trauma and emerge victorious.

So, despite the painful memories, I believe the Gunners can deliver the perfect response due to their increased maturity this around and get all three points to go top of the table for the second week.

If you are thinking that does not make sense since Chelsea are playing at the same time tonight, well that should give you an idea of how I think the Blues will do tonight.

Chelsea’s final lap sees them playing Aston Villa (home) tonight, followed by MU (away), Bolton Wanderers (h), Spurs (a), Stoke (h), Liverpool (a) and Wigan (h).

The match tonight is basically a dress rehearsal for their forthcoming FA Cup semi-final. These sides meet again at Wembley in a fortnight but they both need points from this fixture to ensure that the FA Cup is not all they have left to play for.

Having already lost their shape, momentum and form, Chelsea lost their composure last Sunday to draw at Blackburn when they should have won. They looked just as unimpressive in midweek until the goalkeeping howler by David James which led to the first goal that totally broke the Portsmouth resistance.

Villa on the other hand is still battling hard for the final Champions League qualification. No doubt, they have slipped from a high of third place in December to their current seventh, thanks to a run of three wins in 12. But interestingly, they remain the only unbeaten team in the Premiership in 2010.

They need a result here. They have beaten the Blues before and I would certainly fancy their chances again.

To Villa’s advantage, Chelsea only have John Terry from their regular back four. Ricardo Carvalho will be out for at least a month and his absence could be longer if it is found the Portugal international requires corrective surgery. The defensive blow came just days after right-back Branislav Ivanovic was ruled out for a month with a knee injury in the 1-1 draw against Blackburn last weekend.

Furthermore, Jose Bosingwa and Ashley Cole are both still out. It would be interesting to see Carlo Ancelotti lines-up his defence. Anyhow, I would fancy Gabriel Agbonlahor, Ashley Young and Stewart Downing to cause some trouble and do enough to ensure Chelsea do not get full points.

As I said earlier, that would leave Arsenal at the top, leading MU by a point. But for how long?

Kicking off 30 minutes after Arsenal and Chelsea finish their 90 minutes of action, MU will be under pressure to keep up the pace in their match away to Bolton.

This might be an easy start for the Red Devils in their final push for the title, but they go on to play Chelsea (home), Blackburn (away), Man City (a), Spurs (h), Sunderland (a) and Stoke (h). With three (current) top five opponents, I believe MU could be the first of the top three to go out of contention for the title. Still, tonight could see them winning, but only just.

MU have won nine of their last 10 meetings against Bolton and have lost only once in 10 league visits to the Reebok. Wayne Rooney has scored six goals in his last four matches against the Trotters but may find it a little difficult against a defence which has now kept four successive clean sheets on their own turf.

Perhaps Bolton’s best hope will be that MU have one eye on Tuesday night’s trip to the Allianz Arena to play Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. Not to mention the Easter Saturday showdown with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. And for that reason Rooney may be rested if his knee continues to cause concern.

Bolton have only lost one home game, against Arsenal, since mid-November and have not conceded a single goal in the last four matches on home turf under new manager Owen Coyle.

Speaking of Coyle, he may be relishing this match more than you might imagine because, as a manager of a Premiership team, he has never lost to MU. That’s right, he was in charge of Burnley when the mighty MU suffered their first defeat of the season back in August 2009.

Now that he has had enough time with Bolton, I believe he could yet cause another surprise against the defending league champions. However, there is too much at stake for MU to give up this game too easily, and so I can see a late heartbreaker for Coyle.  Yes, I have made some daring predictions above as to the matches. I suppose you could tell that I also believe Arsenal will come out on top at the end of this final lap of matches.

Predictions are made every week on TV, radio, newspapers and online too. And it requires some thought and analysis, besides courage to do so.

What’s cheap and cowardly though is to pour scorn on predictions which didn’t quite come off as expected. If you are not ready to give your comments before the matches, it’s best to reserve your comments altogether.