Blue diamond might cost the Red Devils

NOV 8 — It seems like there is no end to the woes surrounding Liverpool. One week they are getting further away from the elusive league title, the next they are almost eliminated from the Champions League.

This weekend, thanks to their turn on the Sky Sports Monday night football slot in the UK, the Reds have got a few more days than their once-fellow title challengers to prepare for the start of their season-salvaging campaign, playing host to Birmingham City.

While we eagerly anticipate that match, the match-of-the-week tonight has to be gotten out of the way first. It is after all a top-of-the-table clash between league leaders Chelsea and reigning champions Manchester United (MU). No small matter here.

This match could tell the tale of how the season would go about barring any hiccups. Indeed, the title cannot be won in November but I bet it can be lost at this stage.

Incidentally, Alex Ferguson marked his 23rd anniversary at Old Trafford on Friday and would be looking for a rare victory at Stamford Bridge to celebrate the achievement of being the current longest serving club manager in England, with MU having failed to win there in their last seven visits. (Oh, and if you want to know who is the longest serving manager of all-time in England, read on.)

Here are the facts coming into this match – Chelsea lead MU by two points with 27 points from 11 matches. They could stretch that lead to five points by extending their 100 per cent home record under Carlo Ancelotti. The Blues are also looking to equal a club record of 11 consecutive home wins in all competitions. They have not lost in front of their own fans since Arsenal won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge last November.

One could expect a team of MU’s strength and experience to take a stab at halting Chelsea’s home winning-streak, but the signs are not there, judging by their mid-week performance in the Champions League.

The Red Devils were in chaos defensively against CSKA Moscow and will be further exposed given the attacking depth at Stamford Bridge.

The one man MU will be glad to have on the pitch would be Darren Fletcher. Various pundits cite his absence as a key factor in two of their biggest defeats this year – against Liverpool last month and in the Champions League final back in May.

It’s remarkable really that a player who really only does the basics well is lauded as a key figure for the champions. But to his credit, he excels in doing those basics.

Still, in order for MU to combat Chelsea’s powerful midfield ensemble, Fletcher must be on top of his game. It’s possible that Ferguson will deploy him in a three-man centre midfield, designed to stop Essien, Lampard, Ballack and either Joe Cole or Deco.

It’s not often that Ferguson praises the tactical play of a genuine rival – talking about the Chelsea ‘diamond system’ in the middle of the pitch – but Ancelotti will be well advised to remember that few have beaten Ferguson with tactics alone. It takes mental fortitude, cunning and even a little luck, but having a ‘diamond system’ that works is a good start.

This is his first proper test against Ferguson in England. He has already gotten the better of Ferguson twice in the Champions League, but how will things go this time around?

Like the Italian’s battles against Rafa Benitez and Liverpool in both competitions, I think the result is almost a foregone conclusion in this case too. As much as I want a draw to help to keep the title race more open, I cannot help but see Chelsea extending their lead at the top tonight.

After hogging the headlines over the past two weeks, Liverpool will yet again be the sole focus of attention with their late game against Birmingham on Monday night. One would think they have ADD or it’s some smart marketing move to continually keep Liverpool on front and back pages around the world, to enhance sponsorship value. Win some, lose some equals more mileage!

Regardless, they have worked their way out of contention in the race for the Premiership . . . yet again, and it’s only a matter of time before Benitez admits it. The Spaniard will not quit of course, considering the massive severance package he stands to gain if Liverpool sack him, something the club can ill-afford now.

In theory, a home match against Birmingham is a reasonably straightforward task. However, in theory, they shouldn’t have lost at Sunderland and Fulham too – not to mention at home to Aston Villa. So, there is plenty of danger against Birmingham who gave Manchester City a run for their money last week only to be denied by the heroics of keeper Shay Given.

While it would be easy to sympathise with their plight but, I’m sorry, Benitez has only dug his own grave.

After being in charge of the club for five years and yet still only rely on two players is bad football management. Too many players at Liverpool are simply not good enough. Craig Bellamy, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane were all let go in the recent past – and all, with the exception of Fernando Torres (and maybe Yossi Benayoun on a good day), are better than what they’ve got right now.

Furthermore, this season it has been glaringly obvious that bad decisions by Benitez during a match has had catastrophic results.

Take last week’s Champions League match for example. Five minutes was not going to make much of a difference to Torres, what with the next game being on Monday. Benitez replaces him with David Ngog, who fails to hold the ball up and gives it away immediately before Lyon scored their equaliser.

I would imagine Torres would have held that ball up for a few more seconds at least, which is what you want your forwards to do when you are holding on to a one-goal lead. Believe you me, I know, being an Arsenal supporter and being frustrated with our midfield and strikers in recent away ties at West Ham and AZ Alkmaar.

Last, but not least, Benitez blundered by not replacing Xabi Alonso. MU have sold Ronaldo, but they realised that it was not going to be the same, so Ferguson changed the system completely.

The reason MU are stuttering sometimes could be because of the new system that everybody has to adapt to. It will take a while to settle in to but what matters is that they’re still putting the points on the board.

Benitez, meanwhile, has done nothing to fill the void left by Alonso but instead bought a direct replacement, Alberto Aquilani, who has yet to feature for a full game. One feels that by the time he does, Benitez would have pushed Torres too far and the midfield problem will have turned into a forward problem.

That misjudgment alone should be enough to cost Benitez his job, considering that no one can really say with a hundred per cent conviction that Aquilani will produce the goods like Alonso did. The adage of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush certainly comes to mind.

All that money which Real Madrid paid for Alonso only meant that Liverpool’s owners were spared digging into their own pockets to continue to pay the interest on the loan with which they bought the club. But the club will suffer greater losses, I feel, from the potential loss of revenue from the lack of advancement in the Champions League and possibly missing out on the lucrative fourth spot in the EPL come May 2010.

That said and done, for tomorrow’s match alone, my bet is on Liverpool taking all three points at Anfield simply because they just can’t keep losing or drawing (like last season) against lower-ranked sides.

Rafa’s five years may be nothing compared to Arsene Wenger’s 13 years at the helm of Arsenal, let alone the 23 years Ferguson has been in charge at MU. Still, all of them pale in comparison to the longest-ever serving manager in English football history. It was Fred Everiss who led West Bromwich Albion for 46 years from 1902 to 1948.