Oil prices have dipped after hitting three-month highs this week. – Reuters file pic, March 10, 2016.Oil prices dipped on Thursday, after hitting three-month highs this week, with analysts warning that larger gains would be unwarranted as refineries enter seasonal maintenance and a global glut weighs.
Brent crude futures were at US$40.62 (RM164) per barrel at 1011 GMT (6.11pm Malaysian time), down 45 cents from their last close, having earlier this week peaked at US$41.48, the highest level since December 9.
US crude was down 34 cents at US$37.95 per barrel, having hit US$38.51 on Tuesday, also its highest since December 9.
"Fundamentally you would expect prices to weaken from here because we're about to head into peak refinery turnaround season," said Virendra Chauhan, an analyst at Energy Aspects.
"We expect weakness in the physical market as demand from refineries comes off."
Global demand for crude oil typically dips when refineries around the world enter seasonal maintenance in spring, ahead of peak summer demand.
Prices rose as much as 5% on Wednesday, after a big gasoline inventory drawdown in the United States overshadowed record-high crude stockpiles.
But analysts warned that a global crude production overhang of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) showed few signs of abating.
The focus lies on a potential agreement to rein in output between producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, and non-Opec exporters including Russia.
Yet beyond announced talks about freezing output near record levels – which Latin American producers said on Thursday had been delayed – no deal has been reached.
Barclays said there was no talk of a production cut during a research trip to Saudi Arabia and that the country's goal was to keep production at around 10.2 million bpd over the next five years.
Most analysts expect the oil glut to last into 2017 or even 2018, resulting in low prices.
Only by 2020 is there a consensus for prices to rise towards US$70 a barrel, based on low investment in production.
Expectations of more stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) this week, which would strengthen the dollar against the euro and potentially hamper dollar-traded oil imports, also weighed on markets.
"The ECB will cut deposit rates by 20 bps (basis points) and extend its bond-buying program by one year. This could be bullish for the dollar and bearish for oil," French bank Societe Generale said. – Reuters, March 10, 2016.
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